Arizona’s booming Latino population has created a monumental shift in the state’s demography affecting local and national elections in ways never before witnessed.
The Latino population in Arizona nearly tripled between 1990 and 2010, and is expected to double again by the year 2030, according to the US Census Bureau. The numbers show roughly 688,338 Latinos lived in Arizona in 1990, rising to 1.93 million by 2010. The Census Bureau predicts that Latinos will constitute a majority of Arizona’s population by 2035.
This boom in the Latino population, combined with wide-ranging efforts to increase Latino voter registration, have begun to shape the results of local and national elections in Arizona.
According to One Arizona, a non-partisan political organization, data shows that Latino voters have consistently represented a growing percentage of all ballots cast in Arizona elections with each passing cycle. In the 2012 presidential election, Latino voters represented 18 percent of all ballots cast. Furthermore, One Arizona estimates that Latinos made up over 20 percent of all votes in this year’s presidential race.
In addition, the US Census Bureau data shows that in 1980, for every Latino vote cast in Arizona, there were nearly 12 white votes being cast. By 2012, the ratio had shrunk dramatically, and for every Latino vote being cast, there were only approximately 5 white votes.
The Latino population in Arizona nearly tripled between 1990 and 2010, and is expected to double again by the year 2030, according to the US Census Bureau. The numbers show roughly 688,338 Latinos lived in Arizona in 1990, rising to 1.93 million by 2010. The Census Bureau predicts that Latinos will constitute a majority of Arizona’s population by 2035.
This boom in the Latino population, combined with wide-ranging efforts to increase Latino voter registration, have begun to shape the results of local and national elections in Arizona.
According to One Arizona, a non-partisan political organization, data shows that Latino voters have consistently represented a growing percentage of all ballots cast in Arizona elections with each passing cycle. In the 2012 presidential election, Latino voters represented 18 percent of all ballots cast. Furthermore, One Arizona estimates that Latinos made up over 20 percent of all votes in this year’s presidential race.
In addition, the US Census Bureau data shows that in 1980, for every Latino vote cast in Arizona, there were nearly 12 white votes being cast. By 2012, the ratio had shrunk dramatically, and for every Latino vote being cast, there were only approximately 5 white votes.
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With growing Latino influence being asserted over Arizona politics, there has been much discussion that in the near future, the Latino vote may be able to turn Arizona from being a solid red state, into a purple swing state that may remain in play for Democrats. Joseph Garcia, the Director of Latino Public Policy at the Arizona State University Morrison Institute, offered an analytical perspective and said that while Latinos are indeed increasing in number, many of them remain either too young or ineligible to vote at this time. “Every election cycle I get asked if this is the year that Arizona changes from a red state to a blue state, and every year I keep saying it’s too soon because there aren’t enough young Latinos to vote,” said Garcia. |
Democrats see many possibilities to win over these young Latino voters. In the wake of the passage of bills like SB 1070 and the election of President-elect Donald Trump, the Democratic Party believes that they will be able to win over the majority of the state’s Latinos.
On the other hand, Republicans don’t necessarily agree with the assertion that as the Latino population in Arizona grows it will be a boon for Democrats. Many in the Arizona Republican Party say that they will attract Latino voters to their side because of many of the values that they perceive both share.
Alberto Gutier is an example of an Arizona Latino who is a strong Republican. Gutier voted for Donald Trump in this year’s presidential election and is one of the 11 electors in the state of Arizona that make up the electoral college for presidential elections.
Gutier is an immigrant who came to the United States with his wife from Cuba, and just celebrated his fiftieth anniversary of becoming a U.S. citizen.
Gutier says that he thinks that people make a large mistake by lumping together all Latinos throughout the state and assessing them as a single entity.
“The assumption is that the Latino, Hispanic vote is going to vote Democratic,” the 77-year-old said, adding,
Another Arizona Latino who echoed similar sentiments was 44-year-old Mesa resident Terri Mendoza.
Mendoza says that she herself finds a lot of inspiration from former politicians such as Ronald Reagan, and thinks that more and more Latinos are starting to as well.
“I do a lot of research on Reagan, and he used to say that Hispanics are Republicans, they just don’t know it yet,” the realtor said.
Mendoza believes, similarly to Gutier, that Hispanic values largely coincide with Republican values.
“We are about not a hand-out but working our way up, to having our own businesses, we want little tax and we want the government out of our business so we can flourish and employ people,” she said.
Offering contrasting views are Anthony Ong and his wife, Laurie Ong-Hernandez.
Both Ong and Ong-Hernandez are third generation Arizonans. Ong has both Chinese and Mexican heritage, while Ong-Hernandez’s ancestry traces its roots to Mexico. Ong works at a community center and the couple lives on the west side of Phoenix.
The pair says that they tend to favor Democrats over Republicans in both local and national elections. While Ong and Ong-Hernandez each have their own, specific reasons behind their political inclinations, there are several particular motivating factors that they both share. Both of them believe that the majority of Arizona Latinos share feelings similar to their own.
One example is the passage of the bill Arizona SB 1070. Arizona SB 1070 is a 2010 legislative act in the state of Arizona that made it a state misdemeanor crime for an alien resident to be in Arizona without carrying the required documentation. The most controversial part of the bill required that state law enforcement officers attempted to determine an individual’s immigration status during a lawful stop, detention or arrest, when there was reasonable suspicion that an individual may be an illegal immigrant. That portion of the bill was challenged in court and upheld. Although officers are no longer required to enforce this policy, they may still choose to do this at their discretion. |
Protestors against Arizona SB 1070 in 2010.
Photo by AZ Central. |
"Unfortunately, we’re getting profiled a lot these days,” said Ong-Hernandez.
According to the 40-year-old Ong, the passage of this law was a major turning point not only for his family, but also for many in the larger Arizona Latino community.
“I have a friend that graduated all the way from ASU, and, yet, she was like self deporting herself because she didn’t want to be arrested,” he said.
Ong thinks that while on one hand, the bill made many people more scared to go out and suppressed many of the activities in the Latino community, on the other hand it made a lot of folks angry and motivated them to come out of the dark and organize.
The Democrats are hoping to harness many of these fears and the newfound organization present in the Latino community in Arizona, and turn them into results at the ballot box.
Another example is the emergence of President-elect Donald Trump.
Ong says that Trump’s victory in the recent election strokes the fear that is already present among many in the Arizona Latino community.
“I have a friend that graduated all the way from ASU, and, yet, she was like self deporting herself because she didn’t want to be arrested,” he said.
Ong thinks that while on one hand, the bill made many people more scared to go out and suppressed many of the activities in the Latino community, on the other hand it made a lot of folks angry and motivated them to come out of the dark and organize.
The Democrats are hoping to harness many of these fears and the newfound organization present in the Latino community in Arizona, and turn them into results at the ballot box.
Another example is the emergence of President-elect Donald Trump.
Ong says that Trump’s victory in the recent election strokes the fear that is already present among many in the Arizona Latino community.
His wife shared similar sentiments.
“I think that a lot of people are scared,” said 39-year-old Ong-Hernandez, adding, “But I also think that a lot of people are starting to say ‘Okay, this is our big wake-up call’, we need to make sure we have all our ducks in a row.”
Ong-Hernandez believes that it’s imperative that people in the Arizona Latino community have all of their legal paperwork in order, legally apply for citizenship if they haven’t done so already and make sure that they are registered to vote.
Garcia has been studying Latino trends in Arizona for decades, and believes that both sides of the political spectrum acknowledge Latinos growing political clout in the state.
Garcia says, that in spite the fact that many Latinos voters in Arizona are underage, it is undeniable that as each election cycle progresses, the chances of Arizona becoming more of a solid swing state in play for Democrats increases.
“I think that a lot of people are scared,” said 39-year-old Ong-Hernandez, adding, “But I also think that a lot of people are starting to say ‘Okay, this is our big wake-up call’, we need to make sure we have all our ducks in a row.”
Ong-Hernandez believes that it’s imperative that people in the Arizona Latino community have all of their legal paperwork in order, legally apply for citizenship if they haven’t done so already and make sure that they are registered to vote.
Garcia has been studying Latino trends in Arizona for decades, and believes that both sides of the political spectrum acknowledge Latinos growing political clout in the state.
Garcia says, that in spite the fact that many Latinos voters in Arizona are underage, it is undeniable that as each election cycle progresses, the chances of Arizona becoming more of a solid swing state in play for Democrats increases.
"Almost all Latinos 18 and younger are US citizens, and that’s important to keep in mind because that’s a dynamic change from the present where almost a third of Latino adults aren’t allowed to vote because they’re not US citizens,” he said. |
Joseph Garcia is the Director of Latino Public Policy at the Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy.
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In spite of some of the current data, Garcia was also quick to point out that it would be a large mistake to assume that Latinos all vote for Democrats, or that the Republicans can’t woo them to their side.
“I think that it’s important to understand, though, that Latinos match very well among the core issues that are the Republican platform,” he said, adding, “When you talk about family and faith, including abortion, and patriotism, including military service and small business and entrepreneurship, a lot of things line up very nicely for Latinos with the Republican Party.”
Garcia believes it has been one or two key issues in recent times that have swayed many Latinos to vote Democratic, but that this is something that is not concrete.
“The deal breaker lately has been immigration,” he said, adding, “If the Republican Party starts to look at solutions for immigration that matches with Latinos beliefs, then many Latinos would join the Republican Party. I don’t doubt that at all.”
No matter which side of the political aisle one may fall, one thing is certain. The Arizona Latino’s population influence over the state’s politics will only continue to grow, and both sides will be trying to win as many to their respective sides as possible.
“It’s not like this was a do or die election for Latinos,” Garcia said, adding, “If anything, it was just showing the emergence of the Latino vote as a power.”
“I think that it’s important to understand, though, that Latinos match very well among the core issues that are the Republican platform,” he said, adding, “When you talk about family and faith, including abortion, and patriotism, including military service and small business and entrepreneurship, a lot of things line up very nicely for Latinos with the Republican Party.”
Garcia believes it has been one or two key issues in recent times that have swayed many Latinos to vote Democratic, but that this is something that is not concrete.
“The deal breaker lately has been immigration,” he said, adding, “If the Republican Party starts to look at solutions for immigration that matches with Latinos beliefs, then many Latinos would join the Republican Party. I don’t doubt that at all.”
No matter which side of the political aisle one may fall, one thing is certain. The Arizona Latino’s population influence over the state’s politics will only continue to grow, and both sides will be trying to win as many to their respective sides as possible.
“It’s not like this was a do or die election for Latinos,” Garcia said, adding, “If anything, it was just showing the emergence of the Latino vote as a power.”